In the final weeks of 2022, Lionel Messi lifted the World Cup trophy in Lusail and the Argentine football community experienced something it had been denied for 36 years. Four years later, Argentina defend that title having navigated a transition no previous world champion has faced quite as clearly: the gradual lessening of Messi’s physical involvement, and the question of what a world-class Argentine side looks like without him at his peak.
Algeria qualified having gone unbeaten across their final CAF qualification stage — a record that reflects a specific defensive solidity rather than attacking abundance. Djamel Belmadi’s successor has maintained the structure Belmadi built, and the squad retains the core of the side that won the Africa Cup of Nations in 2019.
Argentina
Alexis Mac Allister has been central to Argentina’s evolution since 2022 — his ability to carry the ball forward from deep means Argentina no longer need Messi as the sole constructor. Julián Álvarez leads the line with the intelligence and movement that produced four goals at the last World Cup. He is quick in small spaces, hard to press, and considerably more difficult to contain than his size suggests. The back four has been reshaped since 2022 with younger centre-backs assuming roles Otamendi and Martínez previously held. The individual quality is there; the cohesion continues to develop.
Predicted lineup (4-3-3): Rulli; Montiel, Romero, Pezzella, Acuña; De Paul, Mac Allister, Fernández; Di María, Álvarez, Messi
Algeria
Riyad Mahrez carries the creative responsibility that no other Algerian player can fully replicate. His ability to create from wide and score from range remains elite even at 35 — but the question for this fixture is how much space Algeria can create around him against Argentina’s pressing system. Islam Slimani leads the line with the physical presence that gives Algeria something to hold onto in periods of sustained defensive pressure. Sofiane Feghouli and Said Benrahma provide the technical quality in midfield that allows Algeria to build when they have the ball. Defensively, Algeria will sit deep and compact — a plan that has worked in CAF competition and will be tested fully here.
Predicted lineup (4-4-2): M’Bolhi; Atal, Mandi, Benlamri, Djaouad; Mahrez, Bennacer, Feghouli, Benrahma; Slimani, Bounedjah
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Argentina | Draw | Algeria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 5.50 | 10.00 |
| Sports Interaction | 1.28 | 5.30 | 9.80 |
| Betway | 1.29 | 5.40 | 9.90 |
| Tonybet | 1.30 | 5.50 | 10.00 |
| Betovo | 1.27 | 5.20 | 9.60 |
| Market | Best Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.80 |
| Both Teams to Score — Yes | 3.20 |
| Both Teams to Score — No | 1.38 |
Prediction
Argentina win this. Messi, operating on his own schedule, will find the game gradually rather than immediately — Algeria’s deep block will limit the first-half opportunities. But Álvarez’s movement in the channels and Mac Allister’s late arrivals into the box will accumulate enough chances by the hour mark to settle the outcome. Mahrez is the one Algerian player capable of a moment that changes things — Argentina’s midfield press must account for him specifically.
Prediction: Argentina 3-0 Algeria. Argentina to win and over 1.5 goals at around 1.55 is the most defensible expression of this result.
Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.
Ryan Delacroix grew up between Bordeaux and Toronto, which left him fluent in two languages and loyal to neither country’s football team. He spent a decade writing for European sports dailies before moving to long-form work covering major tournaments. His pieces tend to start with a detail nobody else noticed and end with a quote that makes the analysis unnecessary. He has been at three World Cups. He still thinks the 2002 one was the strangest.
