In Qatar 2022, Japan defeated Germany and Spain in the group stage and were eliminated by Croatia in the Round of 16. The result against Croatia was decided by precision rather than quality, and the way Japan played across the tournament left their coaches and their supporters with the belief that the gap to the European elite had narrowed considerably. Netherlands know this. They are aware they face a side that has already beaten teams ranked above them.
Netherlands
Ronald Koeman has continued the evolution of a Dutch squad that reached the 2022 quarter-finals and the 2024 European Championship semi-finals. Cody Gakpo leads the line with the kind of movement and positional intelligence that creates specific problems — half-turns in the box, runs off the shoulder — that Japanese defenders find difficult to track. Virgil van Dijk leads the defensive structure. The midfield axis of Frenkie de Jong and Tijjani Reijnders is one of the most technically balanced in this tournament.
Predicted lineup (4-3-3): Flekken; Dumfries, De Vrij, Van Dijk, Blind; De Jong, Reijnders, Veerman; Malen, Gakpo, Depay
Japan
Hajime Moriyasu’s pressing system is among the most cohesive in international football at this level. Japan’s front six work in coordinated waves — when the first press is beaten, the second line immediately adjusts. Takefusa Kubo is the most technically gifted player in this squad: his ability to cut inside and manufacture shots from difficult angles has improved each season. The structural risk in Japan’s system is the high line it concedes in transition — and the Netherlands’ front three have exactly the pace to exploit it.
Predicted lineup (4-3-3): Gonda; Sakai, Itakura, Yoshida, Mitoma; Morita, Endo, Kamada; Kubo, Ueda, Doan
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Netherlands | Draw | Japan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| Sports Interaction | 1.72 | 3.65 | 4.90 |
| Betway | 1.73 | 3.65 | 4.95 |
| Tonybet | 1.75 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| Betovo | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| Market | Best Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.80 |
| Both Teams to Score — Yes | 2.20 |
| Both Teams to Score — No | 1.70 |
Prediction
Netherlands win this, but Japan will push them through the first 30 minutes. The pressing intensity from Moriyasu’s side is designed to unsettle opponents before they find their rhythm. Gakpo, arriving into space behind Japan’s high line, is the most likely source of the opener.
Prediction: Netherlands 2-1 Japan. Both teams to score at 2.20 offers the best value given Japan’s capacity to create even in defeat.
Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.
Ryan Delacroix grew up between Bordeaux and Toronto, which left him fluent in two languages and loyal to neither country’s football team. He spent a decade writing for European sports dailies before moving to long-form work covering major tournaments. His pieces tend to start with a detail nobody else noticed and end with a quote that makes the analysis unnecessary. He has been at three World Cups. He still thinks the 2002 one was the strangest.
