In the winter of 2022, a Moroccan squad built almost entirely on dual-nationals reached the semi-final of the World Cup in Qatar. Walid Regragui had assembled a defensive organisation so thorough that Brazil, had they faced it in the knockout rounds, would have had serious cause for discomfort. They did not face it. Morocco met France instead. Four years later, the question is how much of that 2022 shape survives — and whether Brazil, with new problems of their own, are the side to resolve that question in a single group stage encounter.
Brazil
Dorival Júnior has addressed the structural problems of 2022 by accepting a more conservative midfield configuration, placing greater emphasis on a double pivot rather than attempting to integrate both Casemiro and Bruno Guimarães into a fluid creative system. Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo operate wider, more dependent on 1v1 situations. Against Morocco’s low block, that matters — Regragui’s side funnel pressure wide and defend the box aggressively. Brazil will need to find the second ball after wide deliveries. Endrick, in his first World Cup, adds a directness to the forward line that can unsettle a high defensive line.
Predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Danilo, Marquinhos, Magalhães, Arana; Casemiro, Guimarães; Rodrygo, Paquetá, Vinícius Júnior; Endrick
Morocco
Regragui’s Morocco have conceded the fewest goals of any African qualifier in this cycle. Sofyan Amrabat controls midfield tempo — his reading of where the next pressure will arrive is the quality that made him notable at the highest club level, and it functions equally in an international low-block context. Hakim Ziyech, deeper into his thirties but still the primary creative outlet, provides a delivery threat from wide areas and dead balls that Brazil must specifically organise against. Youssef En-Nesyri leads the line — physical, effective in the air, and capable of the hold-up play that allows Morocco’s deeper midfielders to arrive into space.
Predicted lineup (4-3-3): Bounou; Hakimi, Saïss, El Yamiq, Mazraoui; Amrabat, Ounahi, Ziyech; Boufal, En-Nesyri, Doucouré
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Brazil | Draw | Morocco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Sports Interaction | 1.57 | 3.90 | 5.80 |
| Betway | 1.58 | 3.95 | 5.90 |
| Tonybet | 1.60 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Betovo | 1.55 | 3.85 | 5.75 |
| Market | Best Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 2.30 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.70 |
| Both Teams to Score — Yes | 2.80 |
| Both Teams to Score — No | 1.48 |
Prediction
Brazil win, but not comfortably. Regragui will organise for a first-half goalless draw — Morocco’s standard approach is to deny the opener and grow into the match. Brazil, if patient, will create through wide areas. The set piece is the most likely source of the decisive goal for either side.
Prediction: Brazil 2-0 Morocco. Brazil to win and under 3.5 goals at around 2.00 captures the likely shape more accurately than Brazil to win outright.
Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.
Ryan Delacroix grew up between Bordeaux and Toronto, which left him fluent in two languages and loyal to neither country’s football team. He spent a decade writing for European sports dailies before moving to long-form work covering major tournaments. His pieces tend to start with a detail nobody else noticed and end with a quote that makes the analysis unnecessary. He has been at three World Cups. He still thinks the 2002 one was the strangest.
