Iraq qualified for the 2026 World Cup through the AFC’s extended route — their first appearance in the tournament since 1986, when they played three group matches in Mexico and lost all of them. The forty-year gap encompasses a generation of players who grew up watching from the outside, and the qualification campaign — which required them to eliminate stronger AFC sides across two rounds — produced a set of results that were not predicted by most external observers.
France, with two wins from two at this stage, arrive needing a point. They will take three.
France
Deschamps — or his successor — will rotate. This is the third group game, the squad is deep, and the calculation of match fitness over rotation makes changes likely. Marcus Thuram or Randal Kolo Muani leads the line in a reduced role for the starters. The midfield and defensive structure remain intact — Maignan, Saliba, Upamecano, and the core defensive unit do not sit out group stage fixtures. France are professional about this in a way that makes them harder to predict in the final group match than in the first two.
Predicted lineup (4-3-3): Maignan; Koundé, Upamecano, Saliba, T. Hernández; Camavinga, Tchouaméni, Griezmann; Dembélé, Thuram, Kolo Muani
Iraq
Martín Lasarte has built a side that combines disciplined defensive organisation with a specific counter-attacking threat through Aymen Hussein and Mohanad Ali. Hussein is the player France must account for — his movement between the lines and his ability to link play with quick turns in tight space made him one of AFC qualifying’s most productive forwards. Defensively, Iraq will compact their shape and attempt to limit the space behind their midfield line. They will not press France high — they are not structured to do so — but they will make the central channel difficult to penetrate quickly.
Predicted lineup (4-4-2): Dohan; Mohammed, Al-Hamawi, Tarek Saeed, Al-Awadi; Ibrahim, Al-Hamidawi, Amjed, Saad; Hussein, Ali
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | France | Draw | Iraq |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.18 | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| Sports Interaction | 1.17 | 7.50 | 17.00 |
| Betway | 1.18 | 7.80 | 17.50 |
| Tonybet | 1.18 | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| Betovo | 1.16 | 7.30 | 16.50 |
| Market | Best Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 Goals | 1.75 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 2.10 |
| France to Win to Nil | 1.40 |
Prediction
France win with a rotated squad. The quality gap is too large for Iraq’s defensive discipline to close across 90 minutes. Even with changes in the forward line, France have enough individual quality in the wide areas and through Griezmann’s linkage to create four or five clear chances. Iraq will not score — their counter-attacking threat depends on the space that opens when opponents chase the game, and France with a lead do not chase.
Prediction: France 4-0 Iraq. France to win to nil and over 2.5 goals at around 1.65 is the cleanest expression of the expected result.
Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.
Ryan Delacroix grew up between Bordeaux and Toronto, which left him fluent in two languages and loyal to neither country’s football team. He spent a decade writing for European sports dailies before moving to long-form work covering major tournaments. His pieces tend to start with a detail nobody else noticed and end with a quote that makes the analysis unnecessary. He has been at three World Cups. He still thinks the 2002 one was the strangest.
