Turkey reached the semi-finals of the 2024 European Championship — their best result in a major international tournament since 2002, when they finished third at the World Cup in South Korea and Japan. That 2024 campaign produced one of the tournament’s most talked-about performances in the quarter-final against the Netherlands, where they led before eventually losing 2-1. The result was not a reflection of the football. Their capacity to compete with elite European sides across 90 minutes has since been reassessed.
The United States arrive in their third group match having already secured qualification with victories in the first two. The question is whether they manage the occasion — rotating carefully, protecting fitness — or push for top spot in the group.
Turkey
Hakan Çalhanoğlu has been the pivot of Turkey’s most effective football for three years — his ball-carrying from deep, his range of passing, and his ability to shoot from distance make him Turkey’s most dangerous player from midfield positions. Arda Güler has emerged as the most technically gifted young player in this Turkish squad, and his performances for Real Madrid have demonstrated a capacity for producing in high-pressure moments. Kerem Aktürkoğlu’s movement from wide provides the counter-attacking threat that makes Turkey dangerous when they cede possession and recover it quickly.
Predicted lineup (4-3-3): Çakır; Müldür, Demiral, Söyüncü, Kadioglu; Çalhanoğlu, Özcan, Yüksek; Güler, Aktürkoğlu, Karaman
United States
Gregg Berhalter — or his successor — will rotate with an eye on the Round of 16. Tyler Adams may be rested; a younger midfielder steps in. Ricardo Pepi maintains his place — momentum and confidence matter for a striker entering the tournament. Christian Pulisic starts regardless: he is the player the rest of the squad functions around, and his involvement carries weight beyond statistics. The United States need to be careful about Turkey’s transition — Güler and Aktürkoğlu on the counter, with Çalhanoğlu driving forward from deep, is a specific threat that an unsettled American midfield will struggle to contain.
Predicted lineup (4-3-3): Turner; Dest, Richards, Zimmermann, Robinson; McKennie, Musah, Reyna; Weah, Pepi, Pulisic
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Turkey | Draw | USA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.80 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Sports Interaction | 3.75 | 3.35 | 2.08 |
| Betway | 3.78 | 3.38 | 2.09 |
| Tonybet | 3.80 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Betovo | 3.70 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| Market | Best Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.72 |
| Both Teams to Score — Yes | 2.40 |
| Both Teams to Score — No | 1.60 |
Prediction
This is genuinely competitive. Turkey’s quality in the final third — Güler creating from the right, Çalhanoğlu arriving late — against a partially rotated American midfield creates the conditions for a Turkish goal. The United States’ counter-pressing, when fully coordinated, can manage Turkey’s transition threat. But the rotation reduces that coordination.
A draw is live. The United States win this more often than they lose it — Pulisic’s individual quality is the deciding factor in matches this tight — but the margin is small.
Prediction: USA 1-1 Turkey. The draw at 3.35–3.40 represents the best value in this fixture given the rotation context on both sides.
Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.
Ryan Delacroix grew up between Bordeaux and Toronto, which left him fluent in two languages and loyal to neither country’s football team. He spent a decade writing for European sports dailies before moving to long-form work covering major tournaments. His pieces tend to start with a detail nobody else noticed and end with a quote that makes the analysis unnecessary. He has been at three World Cups. He still thinks the 2002 one was the strangest.
