England and Croatia have now met three times in major tournament knockout football in the space of eight years — a World Cup semi-final in 2018, a Euro 2020 group stage match in 2021, and a Euro 2024 group stage match in 2024. Croatia won the first. England won the other two. The record suggests an evolving relationship: Croatia were ahead for most of the cycle, England have caught up. A group stage encounter at the 2026 World Cup adds another chapter.
England
Jude Bellingham has emerged as one of the three or four best players in Europe across a sustained period. Harry Kane continues to score at a rate that defies the statistical curve of forwards at his age. Phil Foden’s ability to occupy and disorient opposing midfields remains one of international football’s underused resources when not correctly positioned. The difficulty has never been the personnel — it has been the architecture. The manager coming into this tournament has had longer with the squad than Southgate did in his first year. Bukayo Saka provides the most consistent right-side width England possess.
Predicted lineup (4-3-3): Ramsdale; Alexander-Arnold, Stones, Maguire, Trippier; Gallagher, Rice, Bellingham; Saka, Kane, Foden
Croatia
Zlatko Dalić has rebuilt around younger profiles since 2022. The resilience that defined that generation — the ability to come back, to manage the game’s emotional architecture — has been passed down as culture rather than individual quality. Joško Gvardiol anchors the back four and has become one of Europe’s most complete centre-backs. Mateo Kovačić carries the creative midfield burden, a job he has performed for club and country at the highest level for a decade. Andrej Krammarić leads the line. Set pieces have been Croatia’s most consistent source of goals across the last two qualification cycles.
Predicted lineup (4-3-3): Livaković; Stanišić, Šutalo, Gvardiol, Auguštin; Kovačić, Brozović, Majer; Kramaric, Budimir, Perišić
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | England | Draw | Croatia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.55 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| Sports Interaction | 1.53 | 3.85 | 5.40 |
| Betway | 1.54 | 3.85 | 5.45 |
| Tonybet | 1.55 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| Betovo | 1.52 | 3.80 | 5.30 |
| Market | Best Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 2.30 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.68 |
| Both Teams to Score — Yes | 2.50 |
| Both Teams to Score — No | 1.58 |
Prediction
England win. Croatia’s discipline in the first hour — their refusal to concede before understanding what they face — means the opening 45 minutes will be tight. But Bellingham’s ability to arrive late into the box and Kane’s threat from set pieces will accumulate enough danger to settle it in the second half. Kovačić is the one Croatian player capable of turning the result from a position of being behind.
Prediction: England 2-0 Croatia. England to win to nil at approximately 2.40 is the most complete expression of how this game is likely to unfold.
Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.
Ryan Delacroix grew up between Bordeaux and Toronto, which left him fluent in two languages and loyal to neither country’s football team. He spent a decade writing for European sports dailies before moving to long-form work covering major tournaments. His pieces tend to start with a detail nobody else noticed and end with a quote that makes the analysis unnecessary. He has been at three World Cups. He still thinks the 2002 one was the strangest.
